Tour de France 2023 Betting Favourites
Well. Spring is in the air and that means summer, and the Tour de France 2023 is around the corner. First organized in 1903 to increase sales for the newspaper L'Auto, the 21 day race has been held annually since its first edition in 1903 to this year's 110th edition (we can do math, we promise, there was just a couple wars in there you might remember that wreaked havoc with race organization).
As the Tour gained prominence and popularity, the race was lengthened and its reach began to extend around the globe. However, these days pundits are arguing that all the grand tours (the other's being the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta) should be shortened to increase viewership and intensity.
And while participation has expanded from a primarily French field since it's beginning, France would still dearly love a French winner, and potentially with Vauqelin or Bardet in the coming years they may get one.
Currently here are the odds for the field. This is from bet365 but it's similar across the betting houses:
Obviously the two main favourites are Pogačar (Pog) and Vingegaard, with both taking the title in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Pog's form has been remarkable during the classics season that's just wrapping up, and we're cognizant that this might mean that he's peaked too early. But then again, we almost never bet against Pogačar.
Vingegaard took a loss to Pog in the multi-day stage race Paris-Nice earlier in the year, but has building his form nicely, and looked incredibly strong during his general classification (GC) win at Itzulia's stage race.
Out of the current list, we'd definitely recommend not selecting Bernal. Bernal's odds are far too short given his recent poor form and his seemingly inability to come back from his crash in the prior year (despite his superficial face reconstruction?). Our hearts go out to him, as injuries are the worst, but we're not going to donate to the betting houses by laying bets on him.
Race Profile
The Tour de France likes to expand it's reach. Last year it was Denmark, this years' 110th editions starts in the Basque country around Spain, and has one individual time trial (which are key avenues for value each way bets on young riders like Vauqelin or Leonard). We specifically note the Basque country start because you may see Basque riders attempt a stage win in their home region (always a good variable to keep in mind for value bets).
The real GC breaks will most likely begin to happen on around stages five and six when the mountains come into the mix (with stage six definitely one to mark down in your calendars).
Stage 10 is another climb fest, but there's not major key pinnacle that stands out. Expect a rouleur break or a strong team that needs to make a dent in GC to stand out. Similar for Stage 12 where the final three climbs are close enough to the finish, that a break or team break could stick. For more info, see our stage by stage breakdown here.
Similar to last year, the mountains happen in the middle past the first five stages and tail off near the end. We will say that this edition is rather hillier than usual, and with only one TT, favours riders who may be fit into the classic Tour de France maillot jaune mould. The penultimate stage offers enough climbs that it could make or break the GC battle if it's still close.
"Value" Riders Picks & Favourites
We'll start with the riders, and move our way onto teams who are outliers but could produce strong results. It's worth noting that these picks will probably be riding for third in the general classification (GC) given Pogačar/Vingegaard (taking 1/2 unless they crash out). However the odds are long enough to make the payoff from an each way bet worthwhile.
We'll also touch on riders who can claim stages.
Marc Soler
Marc will undoubtedly be locked down as a super domestique for Pog at the Tour, especially with a rumoured 1.5 million dollar salary (we're believers, we mean, UAE, a country, is footing the bill). But, as we mention in Soler's profile, he's not one to always listen to instructions and there's a good chance he'll runaway with an easier mountain stage that won't affect the general classification.
Soler's strong at descending too, so if there's a stage with a barely legal downhill finish, he could be a key player.
We won't be betting on him for GC, given his teammates' with Pog, but we'll definitely be on the lookout for him on certain stages.
Romain Bardet
Bardet has proved incredibly strong during the spring classic races, especially near the tail end in the Ardennes. In certain races, such as Flèche he hit upon some bad luck and could have performed better than what the results suggests.
Which is good news for us bettors as he'll be given longer odds than might otherwise be the case (recency bias affects us all - even the betting houses). Bardet is also French, and well, this is the Tour de France. They care those French.
Kévin Vauqelin
Another Frenchman, Vauqelin is France's next great hope to win the Tour de France in the coming few years. As discussed in our profile of Vauqelin, he's not quite there yet, but we highly expect he'll be winning at least one stage - maybe on Bastille day - and likely during a time trial.
Teams Picks & Favourites
As mentioned in our Giro preview, When it comes to teams, you have to start making some interesting heuristic decisions. Some teams are stacked with potential GC candidates and you have to decide on who their two horse leaders will most likely be, and then compare it against the odds from the bookmakers. We've broken down our approach here.
Firstly, teams will generally let their key domestiqués (support riders) have free reign in the early week long races of the season (January-April). This allows the settling of egos and allows them to be fully locked down as a domestiqué for key riders in the major tours. Think Marc Soler at the Volta Catalunya earlier in the year where he placed fourth in GC and was supported by UAE. Soler should repay the team by being a solid domestique for the Tour, but you never know with Soler 🙃.
Key players per team (Picks & Favourites🔥)
We'll flesh this section out in the coming weeks as the Tour approaches and our picks begin to solidify. Feel free to favourite this page.
Be on the lookout for French teams (think Arkea or AG2R) and riders to try exceptionally hard to win a stage or make a dent on GC (or the team GC battle - that still exists)
Uno-X
Uno-X are making there Tour de France debut. You should have heard how ecstatic the director was after hearing that they'd get one of the wild card slots for the most prestigious race of the season. If you don't know them already, they've got the hot dog coloured kits and are a Pro level team composed solely of Norwegians and Danish riders.
They performed remarkably well during the 2022 season, but 2023 has currently been a bit of a bust. Maybe they've been resting their riders for the big event? But we doubt it. Expect them to be in the break a lot, looking to make a name for themselves, and potentially win a stage. Alexander Kristoff and Tobias Johannessen both have stage winning potential given past results.
Trek-Segafredo
We can't be on the green jersey quite yet, but if we could, Mads Pedersen might be a strong value pick for it. Pedersen has come close in the past to achieving green, and given his spring classics season, he seems to be on the year to potentially nab it if Wout van Aert didn't exist.
Be on the lookout for him to steal a stage however (he did so last year), while his teammate Mattias Skjelmose may make a strong run for that third GC spot.
What to expect in the coming weeks?
Expect betting houses to offer up more options in terms of betting. Usually Betway offers 'Top 10' odds (where the rider simply has to produce a top 10 result for your bet to win) and Bet365 typically offers up 'Top 4' odds as well, or extends the field on their each way bets.
Remember also that tying up your money so far in advance isn't always ideal. It's not like you're making any interest on it while it's sitting there. So unless you really think you're getting a good deal, it's probably worthwhile to bet on other races happening prior to the big kickoff day.
Recently we've had major success at the Giro di Sicilia and Tour of the Alps. Along with a variety of French one day classics and monuments like Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
Key races to be on the lookout for are the Tour de Romandie and Critérium du Dauphiné and of course the first major grand tour of the year - the Giro.