Why you should (almost) always bet Pogačar

Why you should (almost) always bet Pogačar
What a smile. This guy.

This year, it seems to be the case that Tadej Pogačar (Pog) just can't seem to lose. The adage "starting on third base" can be used in almost every race Pog has started this year, and will most likely continue to follow him later on into the season.

People debate the reason why his form has been so strong this season, especially for the classics. From skipping the UAE Tour, to not going to altitude, to tips from Matthieu Van Der Poel. Regardless of what is actually the reason, he most certainly is in good form. While we personally don't believe in "hot" riders (go read Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman), Pog isn't hot, he's just a class above the rest.

What does this mean for betting?

In general classification week long races we tend to bet heavily on Pog. The odds are generally above 2.0 and there's an almost guaranteed return on an each way bet given how the risk of crashes spread out over the course of the multi day event.

When do we not bet Pog? On single day events when the odds are 2.5 or lower and on multi day events when the odds are lower than 2.0. The betting house has bought into the hype, as has everyone else at that point.

2.5 or lower is just too short to be placing money down on Pog for one day events. There's too many variables in cycling for the potential for something to go wrong to even Pog. Crashes (despite his knack for avoiding them) and mechanicals (despite his ability to come back insanely fast from them) affect everyone, even Pog.

It's worth noting that Pog will also grant races to teammates, such as in the Tour of Slovenia, or in races he's already won, especially if it means it won't affect his GC position. So keep a keen eye out for that.