Tour de Hongrie (Hungary) 2023 Favourites
Country: Hungary
Total distance: 881.95 Km
Total Stages: 5
Medium mountain stages: 2
Individual time trials: 0
The Tour of Hungary unfortunately gets situated right at the peak of Giro fever. Starting on May 10th, when the first of the major general classification stages gets underway in the Giro, the Tour of Hungary is a five day affair.
Egan Bernal or the INEOS Grenadiers has been coming into form nicely after his injury and we're excited to see him perform along with the likes of British Max Poole and Canadian Michael Leonard.
The sprinters who were left at home for the Giro are making an appearance here with Groenewgen, Bennet, Van Poppel, Jakobsen and Ewan all on the start list.
Value Picks
For the non sprint stages we're liking Max Poole, Michael Leonard, Egan Bernal, James Knox, and Oscar Onley. Let's see what the odds are like when they drop and if any make our value 15.00 cutoff.
Update: Odds have dropped and only Finn Fisher-Black makes the cut. Oliveira should be a decent domestique for a pull by Fisher-Black and Hirschi - and we expect Finn to make a decent shout over Hirschi.
It's not as great odds as when we bet him @ 126.00 for stage one of Giro di Sicilia - but we'll take it still 🙃.
Brambilla is short. In or opinion he's decent at riding .1 events, but when it gets to .Pro or .UWT level he's less able to compete.
After his second in Tour de Romandie we could see Thibau Nys picking up a stage from a breakaway, be on the lookout for him.
Finally we like Voissard @ 101. He placed 7th at Giro di Sicilia and his form and his team seem to keep improving.
Strongest Teams
Without a doubt, INEOS is coming in strong with Bernal, Plapp and Leonard. Expect them to perform and control the peloton. Other heavy hitter teams include the likes of Soudal - Quick Step, DSM and UAE.
Best lead out train
We're liking Soudal - Quick Step's lead out train this season for their top sprinters. We think the combination of Casper Pedersen and Fabio Jakobsen make a match made in heaven to win a few of these bunch sprints.
Stages
Overall we should have three bunch sprints, and two mountain top finishes. There's potential for breakaways on stages one and two, especially given there's a few teams that are quite strong here and could manage the peloton.
Stage 1
Get ready for a bunch sprint. Take your pick of the top sprinters and whoever you think has the best lead out train should take this stage.
We think Moschetti is decent value @ 41.00. Moschetti came fourth at a similar stage earlier in the year. Aberasturi is similar. Hard to beat those top four sprinters if it comes down to it though.
Stage 2
Similar to stage one, albiet with that category three climb 35km from the finish a break might form. But we feel that's unlikely. Take your pick from the sprinters.
Stage 3
The climbs aren't too strenuous and with a multitude of sprint points throughout we think that Leo Hayter might do surprisingly well here.
Final Climb
Not an exceedingly difficult mountain top finish - 3.5km @ 6.1%. That's why we're going with Hayter who has panache on the shorter but intense climb.
Stage 4
This should make or break GC if it hasn't yet already on stage 3. The initial climb of 7km @ 5.5% is long enough that a break could go and potentially hold it for the next 85km (this is modern cycling). But the other two category two climbs before the finish also offer up break oppurtunity.
Expect Bernal to excel on the final climb, along with Poole and Leonard.
Final Climb
A difficult final climb - 10.9km @ 4.3%. With the initial kicker of 2km @ 9% followed by 11km @ 4.3%. Time gaps should form. We're liking Bernal to take the win, with a close second of Poole, and potentially an Onley to make a debut run for a win.
Stage 5
Well if your sprinter hasn't won yet, at least they get another shot today at taking the stage. Loops around Budapest. We hope they block traffic this year compared to last year when the Giro started in Hungary.
