Giro d'Italia 2023 Favourites
Update: The odds have dropped for all the categories. To find out breakdown for categories like Top 10 or King of the Mountain follow the link below.
Well. The first major grand tour of the year is getting close, so we'd thought we'd drop our preview of the betting markets for all those who want to get in on the action early. Not that we recommend getting in on the action early, as sometimes the odds are misaligned for key players who may get longer odds closer to the big start day.
If you're interested in our stage by stage breakdown - find it here. We find it useful to bookmark for when the race actually kicks off.
Obviously the two big names are Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglič, with the latest face off between the two being at the Volta Catalunya and Roglič coming out on top. But throw in another couple months of altitude training and it could be a whole different ball game.
Currently here are the odds for the field. This is from bet365 but it's similar across the betting houses:
Both Evenepoel and Roglič are far too short for us to place bets on them. We feel Roglič is more likely to beat Evenepoel, but also just as likely to crash out over the course of three weeks, which he's done in the past.
For the others outside the top two, Geraint Thomas (G) has been producing cold results all spring, some of which can be blamed on sickness, but sickness affects training. And in this day and age of cycling, everyone has to be in peak performance to produce results (think about Wout Van Aert losing a week of training before the Classics this year).
We feel Almeida has a good shot, but still not cresting our bar of 15.00 for value picks, so without further ado, here's what we're playing.
"Value" Riders Picks & Favourites
We'll start with the riders, and move our way onto teams who are outliers but could produce strong results. It's worth noting that these picks will probably be riding for third in the general classification (GC) given Evenepoel/Roglič (taking 1/2 unless they crash out). However the odds are long enough to make the payoff from an each way bet worthwhile.
Jay Vine - 41.00
We made a bundle off our Jay Vine pick for the Tour down Under at the start of the year, and we're going to stick with laying down some for him for the Giro. This isn't without risk however, as the UAE team is fully stacked and without a clear leader (Almeida, Formolo, Ulissi, Ackerman). We feel however that they'll run the two horse strategy with Almeida and Vine with the others as support, especially with Ulissi getting to run for general classification (GC) in this weeks Giro di Sicilia.
At 41.00 however, that's decently long odds that could pay off well, even with a top three position and not a full out win.
Santiago Buitrago - 151.00
Buitrago has looked incredibly strong this spring season, securing a top three at the Vuelta Andalucia (2.Pro, but still almost world tour level), eighth at the Tour of the Alps and an outstanding third at Liège–Bastogne–Liège this past weekend. Seems like he's peaking at just the right time to perform well at the Giro.
We also believe he deserves the second seat beside Jack Haig as a potential GC leader for Bahrain. The Giro is known to be incredibly demanding elevation wise and Buitrago's power to weight numbers are through the roof, providing a good launching pad for top five potential.
Hugh Carthy - 81.00
At 81.00, Carthy is a fine pick in our opinion. EF Education will be going for stages at the Tour de France, but may take a shot at GC in the Giro d'Italia, despite potentially not being a strong enough team to do so.
EF, however, has shown to be bucking the trend of their underdog status this year, and has an incredibly strong time trial (TT) squad both for individuals and team that should prove well in the grand tour stage races this year.
Teams Picks & Favourites
When it comes to teams, you have to start making some interesting heuristic decisions. Some teams are stacked with potential GC candidates and you have to decide on who their two horse leaders will most likely be, but also compare it against the odds. We've broken down our approach here.
Firstly, teams will generally let their key domestiqués (support riders) have free reign in the early week long races of the season (January-April). This allows the settling of egos and allows them to be fully locked down as a domestiqué for key riders in the major tours. Let's take the INEOS Grenadiers for example - who are coming to the Giro with a supremely stacked squad. Four of their key riders are: Ganna, Plapp, Geogheghan Hart, and Thomas.
Ganna got free reign and leadership at Volta Algarve (2nd) and the classics such as Paris-Roubaix (6th) and should be locked down as a domestiqué for Tao Geogheghan Hart and Gerraint Thomas their best GC riders. Similarly, Luke Plapp got leadership at the Tour down Under but has since proved unremarkable.
That's one take.
On the other hand the odds don't line up for us. What if Luke Plapp or Ganna actually get to ride for GC? What if Hart crashes or Thomas is still a sickly shell of a rider? Thomas is @ 9.00, Hart @ 41.00, while Plapp is @ 251.00, and Ganna @ 301.00.
Ganna is not 33.4 less likely to be the leader for the team than Thomas, given crash potentials and Thomas being ill earlier in the season.
Given that we've placed down for both Plapp and Ganna. We're a bigger believer in a lot of small bets at the right odds compared to heavy bets on favourites (unless of course, it's Pogačar).
Key players per team
Next up is our team🔥 picks and favourites. We'll fill in the rationale in the coming days and as the startlist starts to be solidified. Feel free to favourite this page.
If we didn't mention a team, it's because their GC contender isn't strong enough for a potential 1/2/3 in our opinion.
Ineos Grenadiers: Ganna/Plapp (see above)
EF Education: Carthy. Cort will fight for stages but not be a GC contender.
Bora - Hansgrohe: Kämna. They'll be riding for Vlasov, but the odds don't make sense. Kämna has a chance and at 81.00 is value.
Stage Winners
Cavendish is arriving for Astana. Expect him to stay for the first few stages, and potentially win a stage (2,3,5,6 seem like potentials) before being OTL on one of the first hilly stages.
What to expect in the coming weeks
Expect betting houses to offer up more options in terms of betting. Usually Betway offers 'Top 10' odds (where the rider simply has to produce a top 10 result for your bet to win) and Bet365 typically offers up 'Top 4' odds as well, or extends the field on their each way bets.
Remember also that tying up your money so far in advance isn't always ideal. It's not like you're making any interest on it while it's sitting there. So unless you really think you're getting a good deal, it's probably worthwhile to bet on other races happening prior to the big kickoff day. Recently we've had major success at the Giro di Sicilia and this week the Tour of the Alps kicks off, along with a variety of French one day classics scattered throughout.