Giro d'Italia 2023 Favourites - Categories

Giro d'Italia 2023 Favourites - Categories

Well, we're getting close, and the betting markets have dropped all the odds for the categories of Points, Head 2 Heads, Young Rider, King of the Mountain, Top 10, Top 3, Team Classification, and Number of Stage Wins.

We break down our value picks and favourites for each of the categories. The key word here is value.

We definitely don't think that these value picks will certainly win the category. We do however believe that the odds are long enough and the rider has enough of a chance that we'll be placing a bet on them.

We've leaned into placing many small bets compared to a handful of large bets. This, in our opinion, tends to average out all the variables in cycling and sports betting in general. We've so far done exceedingly well with this approach.

King of the Mountain

We're liking Kamna, Dombrowski or even Will Barta (who has extremely long odds). The Germans should be given free reign (which is key on certain teams) and are all the riders are above our 15.00 odds threshhold for value.

Movistar will be riding for Rubio, with Verona as a super domestique. Barta's climbs on Thyon 2000 and Harrat in the UAE Tour earlier in the year both indicate they may let him ride for the KOM. And at 601.00 it's crazy not to put down some pennies.

Head 2 Heads

The only ones we're sticking with are:

  • Ilan Van Wilder over Kuss (Kuss will be locked down)
  • Gerraint over Hart (Gerraint should come into form and believe TGH will aid after Gerraint worked so hard for him in Tour of the Alps)
  • Almeida over Vlasov (Vlasov still doesn't seem in supreme form)

Young Rider

We think this is a rather silly category. Given that Remco, who will mostly likely finish on GC as first or second, will doubtless be cleaning up this jersey too.

It's worth putting down some pennies on if he crashes out. We like Buitrago and Healy as potentials. We're a little concerned with Healy's climbing in the third week however given he's mainly excelled on rolly classics.

Team Classification

Not Movistar that's for sure. Their squad is too weak and they're saving everyone for the Tour and then the Vuelta.

In more recent editions the classification is calculated by adding up the top three riders' times from each team for each stage, and then the team with the lowest total time is the leader of the classification.

You're looking for a team here that will have a bunch of strong contenders across the board. So a team with multiple horses for a GC win that hasn't necessarily decided yet. Jumbo will have Roglič in first or second for example, but will they completely burn their domestiques like Kuss? Otherwise there may be some value for that squad.

Points Classification

Magnus Cort @ 12.00 is value in our opinion. While Cort doesn't crest the 15.00 of a value pick, we still think he'll have free reign here and be willing to really go for it.

Number of stage wins

We still like our Jay Vine pick. Yes, he hasn't raced much recently. But that's potentially even better if we think he might not go for GC and just simply for stages. At 3.25, we think these odds are value for him to win a stage.

Anybody else who's decent at climbing should have a shot here. Especially if they're not a GC favoured team. We'll continue to search for value.

Top 10 Finish

Similar to our young riders, we like Healy (still concerned about third week climbing) and Buitrago to be able to place here.

We're also thinking Fortunato @ 3.00 is probably a lock and still enough of value odds. Ilan Van Wilder @ 5.50 is also not a bad shout.

Top 3 Finish

Too risky in our opinion. You're basically betting on that 3rd slot with Remco and Evenepoel in the mix. There's not a supreme amount of value in our opinion.

Stage 1

After beating Plapp down under with an upset win in the National TT, we think Vine has a shot at a 1/2/3. Especially at 201.00 odds we're hard pressed not to pick him

Barta also has a good shot as the ITT has a climb at the end, similar to the one in Tour de Romandie where he recently finished fifth (albeit with a weaker field). But at 81.00 he's still value in our opinion.