World Championships Road Race 2023 - Betting Favourites
Date: Sunday, August 6th, 2023
We've been a tad busy lately so haven't been pumping out as much content, but thankfully other than the Tour de France not as many races to cover as the spring. That's about to change though with a jam packed August. One of which is the World Championships Road Race. The odds have dropped - so let's dig in.
Key Players
We've got all the big names here obviously. Everyone and their mother wants to win the UCI World Champs: Philipsen, Evenepoel, Pog, van Aert. The odds on these big names will sway given how they're performing in the Tour de France in the coming weeks, so be sure to grab one if they have a "poor" day in the Tour and it gives them longer odds here. For example, when Jonas beat Tadej on stage six, Tadej's odds were 16.00 that day but as shown in the image above after stage seven they've dropped to 10.00. We don't usually recommend locking your money up more than a month out, but if you're thinking of placing a heavy bet it might be worth it.
Given the landscape and terrain of the course, it seems likely this one will end up in a bunch sprint and Philipsen will assert his dominance as the top sprinter - but stranger things have happened. Evenepoel or Pogačar may just ride away on one of the laps, but that looks pretty hard to do given the lack of hills on the circuit
Women
It's hard to see anyone beating Vollering, including van Vleuten - but it might happen. It's up for debate whether it will come down to a bunch sprint or if that final kicker will prove to be enought for an attack.
It definitely won't be a bunch sprint after what we've seen in the first few road races on the calendar. You're looking for a strong CX rider with punchy power who will be able to pull out the win.
We like Kopecky after her stage one attack on the Tour de France Femmes led to her outstanding win. And then her climbing ability on the Tourmalet just illustrated the form she is in. Quite short however at the moment. We got her at 4.00 but she's now 3.00 in the markets.
Our value pick would probably be Chloe Dygert is she's actually going to be on the start line (always tough to tell how much to trust PCS's race calendar startlist - especially when it comes to Dygert). But her recent track win illustrates that she's got the form at the moment - but will she be able to translate it to the course?
Shirin Van Anrooj has been dropping steadily because of her CX background which is making her tastier pickings for the market.
U23
We're sure there's value here if you start to dig in. We only have so much time in the day however. Luke Lamperti seems decently long to us given the number of strong podium performances he's had in the past few months.
Value Picks
Hard to say. It's hard to find value when we're talking about a one day event that is so completely stacked with excellence. You're going to have to be picking a rider from a less well established country that still has a shot. Maybe a Quinn Simmons or Ben Healy. A Ganna at 41.00 or a Hayter at 126.00 is also not a bad shout.
Michael Kwiatkowski is probably the best value at 251.00 to win given he's done so in 2014. But just so much has changed in the realm of cycling since then that we think it's a little far fetched. But who knows. He won a Tour stage this year!
Maybe even our hometown hero Derek Gee at 401.00 could make a potential bid if it's wet. We at least know he'll be going for the break. Gee and breaks are like dogs and bones. At least you can take that variable (making the break) out of the race equation.
If you wanted to support the USA, other than Simmons we think Matteo Jorgenson will be smarting after his lack of a win at the Tour (despite being so close) and will want to spring back into form. at 301.00 he's potentially worth a bet. Powless showed some good form at San Sebastian too.
The Course
[LFR]
Elevation Gain: 2889m
Length: 272.5km
Not a whole lot of elevation gain over the course of roughly 270 kilometers. It's going to be tough for a non sprinter to take the crown here in our opinion, however someone with strong seated power like a van Aert might be able to.
There's one decent sized hill before they enter the circuit for nine laps that might allow a break to form - Crow Road - 3.7km @ 5.5% - but even if it does it's unlikely it won't be caught in the laps on the circuit.
During the circuit, there's Montrose street which is 200m @ 6%. 200m is absolutely nothing in our opinion so we don't think it will actually allow an attack off of it - but maybe.
They're right in the city center for this circuit, and there's a lot of hard corners that the rider's will have to deal with. It's going to be technical, and that may prove to be the way the rider will win. A hard attack on the left hand bend just after the Montrose street hill. Maybe. But we still like Philipsen 🙃
Weather
It's worth calling out that this is Scotland we're talking about. It's going to likely be wet. And on what is a surprisingly technical course - anything can happen. Despite the big names showing up, those long shots definitely have more of a chance given the potential for crashes.
