Tour de Pologne (Poland) 2023 Betting Favourites
Country: Poland
Level: World Tour
Total Stages: 7
Mountain Stages: 3
Sprint Stages: 3
Time Trials: 1
Stages: LFR
Race Profile
There's enough hard climbs in this seven day event that we expect a strong climber with a decent time trial to take the GC. The time trial is only 17km long, so as long as they're not an abysmal TT rider it won't make or break their chances.
"Value" Riders Picks & Favourites
We're like Larry Warbasse to win a stage from the break for AG2R. He attempted a few times in the Giro 2023 but was unable to make it stick. Think he'll be chomping at the bit this Tour.
Classic values picks should be some of the debutants of this years event - from Lenny Martinez to Oscar Onley. However, the markets have caught on to these earnest riders and we'll probably have to search further afield.
From the break - Madis Mihkels is a stretch for a stage but did get a fourth in the Tour of Norway, Tobias Lund Andresen is probably a better pick from the break after coming 2nd at Brussels Cycling Classic and two 2nd's during the Tour of Norway. We're sure they'll be a few home nation (Poland) smaller names that attempt to make the break and make it stick.
Finn Fischer Black is showing up with UAE and we think could get freedom on stage one but will have to work for Almeida and McNulty over the course of the Tour.
Tudor Pro Cycling, our favourite dark horse team has Yannis Voisard showing up alongside their sprinter De Kleign who we'll happily pick for some of the bunch sprint stages.
Value Sprinters
If you're open to potentially throwing your money away on long shot sprinters with great value, there's two names that comes to mind: Kim Heiduk and Milan Menten. Heiduk will be sprinting for INEOS most likely, with Menten supplanting himself as Lotto's sprinter.
But at 126.00 and 151.00 that's some pretty good value for potential in the money lines.
Teams Picks & Favourites
UAE is coming in strong with both McNulty and Almeida on the roster. They should clean up the overall. Especially with Majka as a domestique (or will he be given he's Polish?- they might let him win a stage).
INEOS has a strong team as well with Geraint Thomas and Michal Kwiatkowski (also Polish, and also will probably be going for a stage)
Jumbo is bringing Foss for the ITT, alongside Kooij for their sprinters.
Oier Lazkano from Movistar looked strong in Dwars door Vlaanderen and also is coming off the back of 2nd in Spain's ITT, 1rst in their road race and 4th in a 1.1. He might be able to steal a stage.
Sprinters
Be on the lookout for some value from Jonathon Milan from Bahrain (think Giro 2023) and also De Kleign from Tudor Pro Cycling.
Merlier will be incredibly strong from Soudal, as will Kooij from Jumbo, but we could see some sprints going to the smaller names. We're interested to see how Bennett will perform after being left out of the TDF squad for Meeus.
ITT
We think Joel Suter from Tudor Pro Cycling will make a dent in the time trial contenders like Foss, Thomas, and Bissegger. But their tech is only so good, and it might be tough to reach the money of top 3.
Stages
Stage 1 - Link
Elevation Gain: 630m
A nice and simple bunch sprint day. The two bonus intermediate sprints will probably be gained by sprinters so expect them to wear the leaders' jersey for the first day.
Stage 2 - Link
Elevation Gain: 2268m
The first hilly stage of the event. Two category twos of decent caliber in the last 50km and then a tricky hilltop finish of 3.7km @ 7% with the first 1.6km @ 9.5%. Expect an attack either on the second category two or the initial kicker of the final climb.
Stage 3 - Link
Elevation Gain: 3067m
Interesting stage design. The major attack will probably be on the category two climb 14km from the finish. Not a super hard climb at an average of 3.8% but the first 4.5km are a 6% which is enough for an attack in our opinion.
Stage 4 - Link
Elevation Gain: 846m
Good ol' bunch sprint for this stage. A little surprising there's not more intermediate sprints nearer to the finish as we'll imagine it'll be a bit of a snoozer to the end after halfway.
Stage 5 - Link
Elevation Gain: 3034m
What happens if a break forms over Salmopol that then has to do loops of the finish circuit in between the peloton? We're intrigued. We're also intrigued by the 2km kicker right in the middle of the stage. 11.4% eh? Rough.
Stage 6 (ITT) - Link
Corners: 17
Hills: 0.5
Distance: 17km
A rather technical circuit for such a short time trial. That's almost a corner per kilometer. But at least most are bunched together. The corners near the end means that saving your energy probably isn't the best thing for this circuit.
Stage 7 - Link
Elevation Gain: 974m
With the GC tied between Mohorič and Almeida we expect a potential early attack attempt from Mohorič that should be covered by UAE and then a bunch sprint for the stage.
