Tour of Flanders (aka RVV) 2023
The second monument of the year and the fourth of the Flanders Classics is right around the corner. And while this is April Fool's there's no fooling around when it comes to the current betting markets.
All three of the top contenders (Roglic, Pogačar and Wout van Aert) are extremely short. If you didn't grab them a few weeks or months back (as a monument the Tour of Flanders odds came out early in January) you're going to have a tough time finding a good deal among them. Even a few weeks ago you could have gotten MVDP at 8.00, but alas, he's now 3.40 on bet365.
Given that, we wouldn't recommend doing an each way for the winner (top 3) because they're most likely going to be locked up by the big three similar to E3 Saxo Bank classic that was the dress rehearsal for this race. Results for E3 2023 can be found here.
Thankfully, being a large one-day race, the betting markets are offering odds for top 10 and some good head-to-head match ups where some value can be found. But before we dig in here's the usual course profile and weather information.
Long race, clocking in at 273.5, but that's like all classics, and nutrition these days makes the distance relatively irrelevant. A good final climb of the Paterberg 13k's from the finish can provide a breaking away point (but in E3 that didn't help Pogačar shake Wout and MVDP).
Weather also seems fine. A tad chilly, but pretty decent for the start of April. Wind and rain seem irrelevant.
So who might you want to look at for top 10? In terms of value we think:
- John Degenkolb,
- Oier Lazkano (2nd last weekend!),
- Iván García Cortez,
- Søren Kragh Andersen
all had good value odds when we check at the end of the week.
In terms of head-to-heads, we're a little surprised at how down the markets are on Wout (maybe "Woutgate" is affecting it). Which means in the head to head against Pogačar he's given a healthy 2.20 that you could parlay.
We also think Mohoric will beat Madouas. Despite Madouas recent form we still believe Mohoric is more consistent after checking his PCS.
String that together with a few other head to heads and you should be at pretty healthy odds.
Regardless, we hope the race will be entertaining, and after E3 if we're punters, which we are, we'd put money on it.
Enjoy the weekend!
