Tour de France Femmes 2023 Betting Favourites
Country: France
Level: World Tour
Total Stages: 8
Mountain Stages: 3
Sprint Stages: 4
Time Trials: 1
Stages: LFR
Betting Overview
Obviously the markets are favouriting the two big names, especially after van Vleuten's incredibly strong performance at the Giro recently. Planned her peak to perfection if you ask us. It'll likely be a fight for third for the final candidate but we're used to that with the men's races as well.
Course Profile
This is a hard Tour. Let's get that straight. Most of the stages are greater than 130km and the final TT is none too easy. The climbs are plentiful and steep, and even on the first day given the kicker right near the end, the GC action could be kicking off.
Given that we expect Vollering and van Vlueten to keep each other close, and a good play by another contender on a certain day might be enough to keep them in a top three slot until the finish.
Value Riders
We think they've potentially undervalued Gaia Realini here at 51.00. Gaia finished third at the Giro and excelled on the Cavadonga climb that's similar to the Tourmalet in stature. Given the course nature of this Tour, and the hefty amount of climbing, we expect Gaia to sail into third on the seventh stage. She may not be able to hold it together given her slight stature on the final TT (the Giro was a team time trial only and her palmares for TT's is well...not great) but it does have a hefty kicker which may come to her benefit.
Update: Unfortunately PCS doesn't have her racing - but you never know with PCS and women's cycling.
Pro Cycling Bets
For stages be on the lookout for Chloe Dygert to grab her handful of top threes across the stages, specifically on the rouleur based ones. Dygert has been cleaning up in the Vuelta's and the Giro recently. Been nice to see her comeback. (also not racing it seems like)
Charlotte Kool recently just claimed not one, not two, not three, but four first place finishes at Baloise's ladies tour!
She'll have Jastrab and Georgi leading out for her, so she's a potential good shout to beat Wiebes in some sprints. She has often beaten Dygert in the past.
Évita Muzic is also a strong up and coming youngster. Almost placing in the top five for every stage of Itzulia Women. She'll probably be riding for Ludwig but there's always a chance that something goes amiss (or potentially that she'll take a stage).
In another similar situation is Ricarda Bauernfeind who will probably be riding for Niewiadoma but may get freedom on certain days. Her third place performance on the uphill finish of stage five of La Vuelta was quite impressive.
We don't see Reusser not taking at least one stage from a break. Given her insane time trial capabilities and her showing it in the early season classics. Potentially the last TT day if she doesn't nab a stage before then. We could even see her going on stage one before she's locked down for Vollering.
Stages
Stage 1 - Link
Elevation: 1051m
For stage one, this is tough. Mainly due to the 1.7km - 7% kicker just 7km from the finish. That's going to be a steep 300m descent into the finish. We're not yet well versed enough on the best women descenders but expect that technical asset to come in handy here.
Stage 2 - Link
Elevation: 2449m
The whole gamut. Well almost. Three category four climbs, one category three, and one category two climb pierce this stage. If someone wanted the KOM jersey who wasn't named Vollering on van Vlueten today would be the day to go into the break.
The final climb at the finish is hard enough to separate the GC today if it wasn't already separated yesterday.
Stage 3 - Link
Elevation: 1846m
A day for the break, if they let one go. Super rouleur-y. Clocking in at 147.5km it's decently long too. We could see a break waiting until those two category fours at 90kms to go and then charging together to the finish. Could a Reusseur do okay here?
Stage 4 - Link
Elevation: 2477m
This is a hard stage. Potentially the hardest just given the sheer length of it which taps in at 177.5km. Yes they have to face the Tourmalet on stage seven but that's a stage less than 100km long.
There's no mountain top finish but they face 6.6km @ 4.2%, 4.7km @ 5.1%, 2.3km @ 7%, and then a final ramp of 600m @ 8.6% right in the last 30 or so kilometers.
Stage 5 - Link
Elevation: 1732m
Another rouleur stage. They get the first 65km to recover but then face a bunch of 2km climbs at around 7% which could prove to be good options for breaks to form.
Stage 6 - Link
Elevation: 1192m
Could be a bunch sprint today. Especially with tomorrow's stage. None of the climbs are as hard as yesterday and with that intermediate sprint 30kms from the finish the sprinter's going for the green jersey will want to nab it.
Stage 7 - Link
Elevation: 2610m
Short. At only 90km. But they ascend two giant cols in one day. So more than fair to keep the mileage short. First is Col d'Aspin - 12km @ 6.6% and then the well-known Tourmalet - 17.2km @ 7.3%.
Stage 8 (ITT) - Link
Elevation: 197m
Corners: 14
Hills: 1
Do you see that climb in the middle? 1.4km @ 7.4%. That's not an easy climb for a men's time trial let alone a women's. Damn. Expect a lighter time trial to make a name for themselves on this final time trial.
