Paris-Roubaix 2023 Betting Preview

Recently at our full time gigs we had the option of selecting two options for a question about an upcoming worksite. The question was "Are you excited for the offsite?" and the options were "YES!" and "Absolutely". If we were posed the same question for the upcoming 2023 edition of Paris-Roubaix we'd select both if we could.

The third monument of the year, this race should prove to be a barnstormer of a race with Wout Van Aert (WVA) featured as the favourite over Matthieu Van Der Poel (MVDP) across the betting markets despite Wout's recent travails at Tour of Flanders. The odds are decent and not too short with Wout still having 4.75 odds of winning. But anything can happen at Paris-Roubaix, especially if the weather is rough, and hence why the odds aren't in the 2.X for the favourites.

Despite the relatively decent odds, we've decided to scour for value picks and we'll let you know what they are down below.

Previous Winners

Of the previous winners, a few are still active, and have lifeblood still in them (we're not talking about Sagan 🙃 - we're of the belief he's retired already and collecting his pension from TotalEnergies).  Dylan Van Baarle (13.00) has relatively short odds in our opinion. Van Baarle has two other fierce competitors on the same team (Wout and Laporte at JumboVisma) who could both also be going for the win.

Degenkolb on the other hand, is still just beneath the "I should be looking to retire" age of 35 and has been performing well in his past few classics races this year (19, 15, 12). Team DSM, who Degenkolb rides for, also doesn't have as spectacular stars competing against him on the same team like JumboVisma does with DVB, Wout and Laporte. We're happily placing an each way (E/W) on him.

Weather

With not a lot rain the day before, and a relatively balmy 17 deg Celcius high - it's looking like weather isn't going to be a factor for this year's race. What does that mean? That those relatively longer odds that the favourites (eg. Wout) get because "anything can happen" at Roubaix make more sense to lay down on. So if you wanted to place a healthy number on MVDP or Wout we're less willing to dissuade you. But remember that the team car has only so many replacement bikes when flats undoubtedly happen 🙃

Value Picks

Other than Mr. Degenkolb, there's some good value to be found amongst the current odds offered by the houses. Bet365 is also offering Top 10 odds and Betway is offering Top 3 odds. Here's some of our value picks for those categories and why.

Find the link here for riders' previous performances at Paris-Roubaix

Top 10

Valentin Madous - 7.00 for a Top 10 felt extremely long given his recent 2nd at Strade Bianche (which personally we feel mimics Paris Roubaix with all the gravel) and 8th at E3. For comparison, all the top contenders have odds of < 1.5.

Axel Zingle - 15.00 for a Top 10 once again felt incredibly long. Zingle has placed well in lower tier French one day classics (1rst and 7th) and then 12th at Dwars door Vlandeeren. Seems well within the range of possibility for a Top 10.

Zdenek Stybar - In terms of performance the past few years, Stybar has been showing his age. But at 15.00 and having garnered 6 Top 10s for 9 starts at Paris Roubaix we're willing to risk that age is just a number.

Top 3

Sep Vanmarcke - At 21.00 we're happy to take this bet. Vamarcke has had five top 10 performances out of nine starts at Paris Roubaix and has recently placed within the top 3 at a classic this year (3rd at Gent-Wevelgem)

Head to Heads

This is where it gets tough. Paris Roubaix is such a lottery at times with crashes, flats and general randomness. But there's a few H2H odds that strike us as, cough, odd.

For example, despite De Lie not performing up to his prodigal acclamation early in the season, we still find the odds to be long on him beating Mads Pedersen. Currently they're at 3.50 which is some of the longest odds you'll find for head to head match ups.

Overall, we're ecstatic for the races, including the women's race on the Saturday. We prefer separate race days between the sexes. As despite how much we love cycling, there's only so much we can ingest. Having separate days for the races allows us to fully appreciate the women's race instead of having it as an added cherry on the Sunday that we may, or may not be, too full for.

If the women's odds drop, we'll share a separate post with our picks.

We'll have a recap of the race, and of our results after the big day. Enjoy!