Il Lombardia 2023 Betting Favourites
Date: Saturday, October 7th
Il Lombardia, held since 1905, used to be called the Giro di Lombardia before the Giro grand tour wanted to lay copyright claim to the ‘Giro’ term and make it their own. Il Lombardia, nicknamed the “classic of the falling dead leaves”, is one of the last events on the UCI World Calendar. Fausto Coppi, holds the title of most wins, achieving a win a record five times.
Because the race usually has a downhill or flat run-in to the finish, the main contenders are riders with a broad range of skills. As such, the course favours climbers with a strong sprint finish and strong descending skills - skills most general classification contenders have. Which is why a lot of riders will double dip after La Vuelta this year including the likes of Primoz Roglič and Remco Evenepoel. Will Roglič need to perform in this race after signing with a new team? Will he be lacking in motivation? This remains to be seen!
The race is often compared to Liège–Bastogne–Liège, the monument race in Belgium earlier in the year. Both classics have a similar hilly course and show a similar palmarès since the 1960s, but are different in character. The hills in Lombardy are usually longer than those in the Belgian Ardennes and are more spread out over the course. Liège–Bastogne–Liège has 12 categorized climbs, usually shorter and steeper, coming in faster succession than in Il Lombardia, and has an uphill-finish.
Because of its position in autumn as one of the last classics of the year, the weather repeatedly plays a decisive role in the nature of the race. In bad weather - common to mountainous Lombardy - the race is often a gruelling contest where the strongest riders attack well ahead of the finish. Crashes on wet descents are common, especially on slick Italian roads.
When the weather conditions are good, teams are able to control the race more easily and decisive attacks come later in the race.
Pogacar is doing is usual march of warming up on the one day Italian classics prior to the big race day. He recently placed third in Coppa Sabatini which is similar to his performances in his warm up last year.
As a refresher he's the top ten from last year
Remco Evenepoel should be showing up however. Will that change the profile? Most likely. Especially if he carries any of his form he's had in La Vuelta. Both Remco and Pogačar can simply ride away from the peloton 40kms out if they wanted to.
Sadly we didn't get to see the showdown of the two at Liege - Bastione - Liege but maybe this will be the race where neither will crash out in the first 30kms 🤞
Given how early Remco goes, it's possible he'll try on the Madonna del Ghisallo, but withstanding that, we're sure the Civiglio of 4km @ 10.1% would prove to be the deciding ground to separate the cream from the crop.
What about Roglič who recently beat Pogačar at the Giro dell'Emilia? Will he be able to repeat the feat at the race of the falling leaves? Or will he be doomed to repeat Mas, where Mas beat Pogačar in Emilia only to fall prey to him in the bigger Monument?
Ben Healy and Giulio Cicconne have both been in better form this year than last. Cicconne had a 15th spot last year. Can he improve? Will Healy be able to hold the wheel when Remco and Pogačar go for the win? Potentially. Especially given it's seems that Healy wasn't peaking for the Canadian classics and may have been saving his A-race form for this one.
Course
Il Lombardia switches every between two circuits every year. This year's edition is found below.
Value Riders
As such, we'll dive into the value riders we think may come about for this year's race. The odds haven't dropped yet, but the startlist is closer to being finalized.
This is going to be a hard race with the likes of Evenepoel, Roglic and Pogačar. Will anybody be realistically able to clench a podium position from one of these three? Yes. Potentially. Depending on how it is raced. If Evenepoel and Pogačar go early, we're unsure Roglic will go with them. What does that mean? Which other rider will be in that breakaway group that goes with Evenepoel and Pogačar?
Potentially Healy as we've mentioned before, but the likes of Kron, Teuns or Cicconne wouldn't surprise us. Be on the lookout for their odds as they may be worth an E/W bet if they're long enough.
Simon Yates looks like extreme value given the current odds at 41.00. He's the leader for Jayco and has been looking strong in the fall races. He likely won't win but has a high chance for a top three in our opinion.
