BEMER (Hamburg) Cycling Classic 2023 Betting Favourites
Country: Germany
Level: World Tour
Type: One Day Classic
Course: LFR
We'll handle this one as we typically handle one day Classics. We'll dig into the route changes from the prior year, compare to the winners of the prior year, and then attempt to inspect for any potential differences that could forspell a different result.
For those who are new to the Hamburg Classic, it's a route that usually around 240km and always ends on Hamburg's most illustrious shopping street: Mönckebergstraße. The toughest climb on the route is the Waseberg (0.7km - max 16%) which is hit three times during the course near the end. It is immediately after a sharp curve so position is key, given the funnelling that occurs on the narrow road of the climb.
Past Winners
There was no race in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID, but last year's race was won by Marco Haller, and it's worth calling out that the 2017, 2018, and 2019 editions were all won by Ella Viviani.
Viviani has been having a rough sprint year to put it mildly. But that's great for us because the odds may put him long for the race. But don't let those long odds trick you. Once you've won something once you can definitely win it again. Despite the era of modern cycling. Just think of John Degenkolb this year in Paris Roubaix. If he hadn't crashed he could have pulled out a top three for sure. Buy low on Viviani.
Haller definitely had a one off performance last year. We don't think he'll repeat.
Course
2022
2023
Did they repave the Waseberg? Like did they shave off 0.2km from it from last year. We'll have to look into this. This is amusing. Maybe the start is a little different from the prior year, or LFR is having difficulty parsing this time around.
Regardless. Roughly similar course.
2019 winners when it ended in a bunch sprint.
2022 winners below. Seems like a sprint from a break but we weren't watching that year. You can see the actual sprinters not far behind though. So we believe that's what happened.
Who's Coming? Who to Bet?
Names are still trickling in but it seems that Wout van Aert will show again with the likes of Nizzolo, Merlier, and McNulty.
Given the number of past years that have ended in a bunch sprint, we're liking the same to occur this year. It may be another break win and worth punting a few potential "breakees" on your ticket but that's up to you.
There should be some long-ish sprinters who can make a good shout for a top three. Mainly Viviani we're thinking, but as the names solidify we'll flesh this section out.
